It’s that time of year again — fireworks, fairways, and the John Deere Classic in Silvis, Illinois. While the world’s top-ranked players may be prepping for links golf overseas, this week’s field at TPC Deere Run is wide open. And that’s exactly why it’s one of the best betting events of the summer.

When the big dogs sit out, fresh faces step in — and history says the John Deere Classic is the perfect place for breakout wins.

Who’s Favored to Win?

Leading the odds board is Ben Griffin at +1600. After picking up two big wins this season — the Zurich Classic and the Charles Schwab Challenge — he’s officially on the radar. Confident, sharp with his irons, and cool under pressure.

“Griffin has graduated from contender to closer. He’s a legit threat now.”
— Golf Channel analyst

Next in line is Jason Day (+2200), a former PGA champion with 13 Tour wins to his name. He’s healthy again, coming off a T-4 at the Travelers Championship, and making his seventh start at Deere Run.

Also near the top:

• Si Woo Kim (+3000)
• Denny McCarthy (+3250)
• J.T. Poston (+3250) — who already won this event back in 2022

“Poston just gets it around Deere Run. He knows how to go low here.”
— PGA Tour Radio host

Sleepers That Could Make Noise

Now let’s talk about the guys who could surprise everyone and cash big.

Emiliano Grillo is sitting at +7500 and may be the best value on the board. He nearly won here in 2022 (T-2) and has made 32 of 40 cuts since the start of 2023. Sure, he finished T-73 last week, but he had three top-20s before that — including T-19 at the U.S. Open.

“Grillo knows this course. If he gets hot with the putter, don’t blink.”
— SportsLine golf analyst

Other names to watch:

• Michael Thorbjornsen (+3500) — T-4 last week, big upside
• Chris Gotterup (+4000) — wild card with major distance off the tee
• Aldrich Potgieter (+4000) — coming off his first PGA win in Detroit
• Matt McCarty, Takumi Kanaya, Paul Waring — all showing signs of life

Betting Fun Fact

For three years in a row, the winner of the John Deere Classic has stayed in the same rental house. Poston (2022), Straka (2023), and Thompson (2024) all won after bunking there. Locals call it “The Trophy House.” If we find out who’s crashing there this week, bet ’em.

Where to Watch

All four rounds will be broadcast on:

• Golf Channel (Thursday–Sunday)
• CBS (Saturday & Sunday)
• Streaming on Fubo, Paramount+, NBC Sports App

First tee times each day start around 7:45 a.m. CT, with radio coverage on PGA Tour Radio starting at 1 p.m.

Author’s Pick

Ben Griffin and Jason Day are rock-solid picks. But if you’re looking for value? Grillo and Thorbjornsen could deliver. Grillo’s got course history, and Thorbjornsen is sneaky sharp when healthy.

And hey — if Chris Gotterup can keep it in the fairway, he could shock the field. He ranks 7th in driving distance on Tour and when he’s locked in, the leaderboard better watch out.

“Deere Run is where guys make names for themselves. It’s wide open, and that’s what makes it beautiful.”
— longtime fan from Moline